Crude Oil Board

Hello,

I have to estimate the fuel oil price of the next year 2007 for my budget preparation. Can anybody show me any reliable link related to oil price forecasting.

Thank you.

Are always a difficult thing to do but since you need the estimates "only" for the upcoming year your position is not to bad at all.

Assuming that you know the what kind of oil is relevant for your budget my suggestion would be to go to the Futures makrte and have a look at the prices for those futures due during the upcoming year. (e.g. one for March, one for June, one for Sept and one for Dec... or even greater detail).
These prices theoretically are the best estimate which the world market (and therefore all the experts dealing only with that stuff) is able to come up with at this point of time.
There of course is not guarantee whatsoever that these prices become reality but that's the way it is with estimates... yet I would consider these prices the best estimates you can get.

Having the "basic" prices you might want to adjust for some risk (i.e. be a bit more prudent about your own figures than the actual market figures suggest) and there you are.

Sounds like it wasn't much of a deal (and it really isn't difficult at all) but for one year budget/planning purposes it might be just perfect.

Regards,
Math

MHL_AUT,

Thanks for your reply. Actually, I collected data in the past and tried doing the forcasting (using tools in MS Excel) with some adjustments due to the Government's subsidizing (Vietnam), but the result was still far away from reality!!

Hung

Hello!

Well generally speaking every oil price forecast for this year (2006) was far off reality (even oil companies underestimated the price by far).

Forecasting based on historic data is very very difficult no matter what you try to estimate and it is especially difficult with something that depends as heavily on what is going on in the world as the oil price does.

A very prudent version would be to take the futures prices (as suggested above) increase them by the standard error (or the variance... I leave that open for discussion) and then adjust for your gov. support etc.
(This assuming that oil price is a cost factor to you ... if it is an income factor subtract instead of increase).

What might be interesting as well is some kind of correlation research as far as potential other production inputs are concerned... i.e. is the price of these other inputs increasing or decreasing with the oil price...
Sometimes one finds out that due to negative correlation within the production factors prices of a certain input (e.g. oil) is not as important as one thought (or vice versa = even a lot more important)

Cheers
Math

PS: If oil price is really important to you business some kind of sensitivity analysis might be a good idea (e.g. how do things change if oil price changes by 1USD etc.)

Hung,
I recommend you incorporate in your study our affiliate site's fuel price production available at: http://gas-cost.net/

Crude oil price forecast using technical analysis. and it would make sense to track and forecast crude oil prices as a part of your high level market analysis process.

Dear sir,
I refer to your old query placed in 2007 about anybody helping you know about the future crude oil price for your planning.
Le me introduce you an expert in the line of commodity price forecasting on the basis of an objectively designed model. Please refer to my forecast on the 'Paid Forecast Section on 'Oil-price.net for march price. I you find authenticity kindly reply me back for further discussion. My website is businessforecast.webs.com
Yours truly
Kanti Mohan Pandit(Kantian)
91 24305887, 7890577033(Mob)
Calcutta, India

No way to predict long term. Remember 2008? If Iran gets bombed than prices skyrocket. As natural gas and renewable energy sources take more of the heating market than oil prices will fall.

-bbblade

Then what is the longest period for more or less good prediction?